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Prediction for CME (2022-07-18T17:24:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2022-07-18T17:24Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/20900/-1
CME Note: Bright CME SW in SOHO LASCO and STEREO A COR2. This CME seems to have accelerated over time. Its source seems to be a slow filament eruption mostly SE from AR 3056 (which was located at W40S17 at the time of eruption), possibly stretching along latitude of ~30 deg, with dimming stretching from W10 to W30 and post-eruptive arcades at W30-W50. CME arrival is characterized by a sudden increase in B_total to ~17nT accompanied by increases in density, temperature, and solar wind speed (peaking around ~700km/s) at L1. This arrival may instead/also be associated with the CME first visible in SOHO LASCO C2 at 2022-07-21T01:36Z and the CME first detected at 2022-07-21T01:48Z.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2022-07-23T02:28Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2022-07-23T07:10Z (-12.0h, +12.0h)
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 20.0%
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 3.0 - 6.0
Prediction Method: Other (SIDC)
Prediction Method Note:

See prediction details from SIDC Ursigram excerpt below:
:Issued: 2022 Jul 19 1252 UTC
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
# DAILY BULLETIN ON SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY from the SIDC     #
# (RWC Belgium)                                                      #
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
SIDC URSIGRAM 20719
SIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 19 Jul 2022, 1251UT
SIDC FORECAST (valid from 1230UT, 19 Jul 2022 until 21 Jul 2022) 
SOLAR FLARES  : C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%) 
GEOMAGNETISM  : Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4) 
SOLAR PROTONS : Quiet 
PREDICTIONS FOR 19 Jul 2022  10CM FLUX: 152 / AP: 024 
PREDICTIONS FOR 20 Jul 2022  10CM FLUX: 147 / AP: 016 
PREDICTIONS FOR 21 Jul 2022  10CM FLUX: 150 / AP: 019
COMMENT: Solar flaring activity was at low levels over the past 24 hours.
The largest flare observed was an C3.9 flare, peaking at 18 July 23:54 UT, originating from NOAA AR 3058. The flaring activity is expected to be at low levels with C-class flares expected, while M-class flares are possible.

A CME can be seen in Stereo A on 18 July 17:53 UT. This seems to be associated with activity about that time around NOAA AR 3056 and an associated dimming. Chances of a glancing blow early-mid 23 July cannot be excluded, but the confidence is low.

Lead Time: 83.47 hour(s)
Difference: -4.70 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Carina Alden (M2M Office) on 2022-07-19T15:00Z

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